Leo Carlsson

The drafts best true power forward and a top-5 pick beyond any doubt

May 12, 2023

Height: 6’3”
Weight: 198 lbs.
Shoots: Left
Position: Center/Wing
Team: Örebro HK (SHL)
Nationality: Sweden

The Draft Prospectus Ranking: #4

Rounding out the big four in this year's draft class is Leo Carlsson of Örebro in the SHL. Of all the major prospect outlets, Carlsson is the only player other than Connor Bedard, Adam Fantilli, and Matvei Michkov to receive rankings within the top four.

Carlsson is the top-rated player out of Sweden, often drawing comparisons to fellow countryman Mats Sundin for his combination of size and skill.

As one of Sweden’s top performers at the 2023 World Junior Championship, Carlsson finished the tournament with six points (three goals, three assists), second among all draft-eligible prospects behind only Bedard (23 points).

“He’s a big body forward with plus puck touch. He’s averaging just shy of 15 minutes of ice in the top pro league in Sweden. His offensive numbers are elite, when comparing him to other prospects coming out of the SHL.” - Jason Bukala, Sportsnet

Playing for Örebro in the Swedish first division, Carlsson has held his own in one of the world's top leagues, racking up 25 points (10 goals, 15 assists) while playing center and wing. At only 18 years old, he led all U20 players in the SHL in point production, many of who had been drafted in years past.

Following a successful season at Örebro, Carlsson was selected to join Team Sweden at the World Championships this spring. With a strong outing, he hopes to secure his spot in the top-3 or even pressure Fantilli for the second overall selection.

Of all the top prospects, Carlsson has faced the best competition during his draft year and has produced on a nightly basis. His skill level combined with his significant frame should pop off the charts for each general manager near the top of the draft.

🥅 Carlsson is a power forward in every sense of the word. At 6’3” and slightly under 200 lbs., he effortlessly drives the play to the middle of the ice. Aside from his pure strength, Carlsson also has smooth hands for a player of his stature.

Not only can he bully his way wherever he wants, but he’ll stick handle his way there depending on how the opportunity presents itself. Coming down the wing, Carlsson is like a semi-truck driving into the offensive zone, yet possesses a pair of hands like a Ferarri.

Carlsson has one of the draft's highest hockey IQs, able to set up his teammates in ideal areas of the ice. No matter his position, he understands where his teammates are, finding their stick at the perfect time.

Carlsson is one of the best puck protectors in the draft, using his backside to shield defenders while keeping the puck away from his body using his long reach. Though he’s a long way from being in the same conversation, he plays a similar style to Jaromir Jagr along the boards with his inept ability to keep defenders at a distance but keep his head up, constantly aware of his surroundings.

While not the smoothest skater, Carlsson operates his large frame quite well. That, paired with his puckhandling, makes him a threat as he enters the zone with the puck.

Scoring is no issue for Carlsson, but he isn’t one of the top shooters of the puck. He won't be seen beating the goaltender from outside the circles too often, as he doesn’t have the shooting power of other larger forwards. He prefers to take his chances from closer in, where he can use his bulk to protect the puck or crash the net, capitalizing on rebounds. When he sees a mismatch on his hands with a larger, non-agile defender, Carlsson looks to beat them with his skill. He reads the defense and beats them with one of the many tools in his bag.

Carlsson’s only offensive attribute that can be criticized is his unselfishness. He can find himself in a great scoring position but instead defers to passing to a teammate. With age and experience, he will likely look to capitalize more often on the chances he creates.

🏒Compared to the other players likely to be taken in the top four, Carlsson plays the most defensively responsible game.

He likes to use his body along the boards to separate the offensive player from the puck. He may not deliver the big hits but uses his body and a quick stick to take the puck the other way.

Because of his ability in the defensive end, we’ll likely see Carlsson making his NHL debut sooner rather than later. He can play the wing or center on any of the top-three lines. Bedard and Fantilli likely wouldn’t thrive playing third-line minutes as they are more offensive-minded and still need work defensively. Carlsson can fit into the lineup in multiple ways, giving himself a better opportunity to earn ice time.

📊 It seems as if the only real question surrounding Carlsson is whether he’ll be drafted third or fourth. With the Columbus Blue Jackets and the San Jose Sharks selecting third and fourth, it’s hard to imagine Carlsson making it out of the top four. If he magically does, the Montreal Canadiens and Kent Hughes will be waiting with open arms.

Carlsson has been one of his team's top performers, whether at the SHL or the international level. His style of play transitions so well to the NHL it’s a shame he’s in such a strong draft age group. Like many prospects projected to be selected in the top 10, he could potentially be the first-overall pick many other years.

It will be interesting to see where Carlsson plays within the lineup. He likely gets a crack at his natural center position because of his defensive responsibilities. Teams love having size at the center, especially one that plays an assertive two-way game. Landing in Columbus would likely see him get a shot at center to start, while with the Sharks, he could play either. In any location, he’ll likely become a major asset on the top powerplay unit.

Whether he gets an opportunity to play next year or remains in the SHL for another season, Carlsson deserves to be one of the draft's top selections.