2023 NHL Draft/Lottery Preview
Which teams fortunes will be changed forever, landing Connor Bedard first overall?
The playoffs are in full swing, down to the final eight teams, as only one can be crowned victor of Lord Stanley’s Cup. For the teams near the bottom of the standings, tonight marks one of the most critical days of the off-season - and for one organization, possibly the most important day in franchise history.
If you’ve been following the NHL season whatsoever, you’ve likely heard the name Connor Bedard. But for those of you who haven’t followed so closely, Bedard is the crown jewel of this year's draft and is expected to be a generational talent. He is easily the most anticipated prospect since Connor McDavid, who has taken the league by storm since his rookie season in 2015.
Aside from Bedard, this draft is touted to be one of the deepest we’ve seen in years. The top five rated prospects, Bedard, Adam Fantilli, Matvei Michkov, Leo Carlsson, and Will Smith, would have likely been selected first overall had they been draft-eligible last year. This entire pool is loaded with talent, specifically forwards, projected to litter the first-round draft board.
According to our rankings, Axel Sandin Pellikka is the top-ranked defenseman at No. 13 overall. This is not a deep defensive draft, as we only have four blue liners in the top 32. The last time the first defenseman selected was taken outside the top 10 was in 1983 when the Winnipeg Jets selected Bobby Dollas with the 14th overall pick.
As always, a high percentage of players selected in round one will be from the three leagues making up the Canadian Hockey League (QMJHL, WHL, OHL). This year, the WHL has dominated not just the other leagues within the CHL but all leagues across the globe. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that four players from the WHL could be selected in the top 10.
The OHL has typically dominated near the top of the draft but have fallen back a bit this season, as Colby Barlow of the Owen Sound Attack is our highest-ranked OHL prospect at No. 15 overall. In the past 37 years, an OHL prospect failed to be selected in the top 10 once, which was in 2019 when Thomas Harley of the Mississauga Steelheads was chosen by the Dallas Stars 19th overall.
Over the past three-and-a-half decades, there has been no shortage of Russian star power in the NHL. In 1989, Slava Fetisov left the Soviet Union to join Lou Lamoriello and the New Jersey Devils - a watershed moment in the history of the NHL as he was the first player to disobey the orders of the Soviet Hockey Federation and make the transition to North America. With the ongoing war in Ukraine, Russian hockey players (like many others) are coming to grips with the consequences of Vladimir Putin’s actions. There's a worry that some of these drafted Russian players may never make it to the NHL despite their ability to compete with the best players in the world. It’s very likely some first-round talent like Michkov, Mikhail Gulyayev, Dimitri Simashev, and Daniil But could all drop significantly come draft night due to their unmitigated circumstances.
Across the first round, it's projected that seven different countries will be represented across North America and Europe (Canada 14, USA 7, Russia 4, Sweden 3, Slovakia 2, Czechia 1, Austria 1). Last year, we saw a hockey resurgence in Slovakia as Juraj Slafkovsky and Simon Nemec were the top two selections in 2022 - the first time the tiny nation of only 5.4 million people was represented so high in the draft. This year, it is more than likely the Slovaks will hear two familiar names called on day one as Dalibor Dvorský and Samuel Honzek are projected first-rounders.
Top 32 Power Rankings
Connor Bedard - Regina Pats (WHL)
Adam Fantilli - University of Michigan (NCAA)
Matvei Michkov - HC Sochi (KHL)
Leo Carlsson - Örebro HK (SHL)
Will Smith - USNTDP
Zach Benson - Winnipeg Ice (WHL)
Andrew Cristall - Kelowna Rockets (WHL)
Oliver Moore -USNTDP
Brayden Yager - Moose Jaw Warriors (WHL)
Eduard Šalé - HC Brno Kometa (Czechia)
Dalibor Dvorský - AIK (HockeyAllsvenskan)
Ryan Leonard - USNTDP
Axel Sandin Pellikka - Skellefteå AIK (Hockey Allsvenskan)
Gabe Perreault - USNTDP
Colby Barlow - Owen Sound Attack (OHL)
Mikhail Gulyayev - Omskie Yasterby (MHL)
Calum Ritchie - Oshawa Generals (OHL)
Riley Heidt - Prince George Cougars - (WHL)
David Reinbacher - EHC Kloten (NL)
Nate Danielson - Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL)
Ethan Gauthier - Sherbrooke Pjoenix (QMJHL)
Samuel Honzek - Vancouver Giants (WHL)
Mattew Wood - UCONN (NCAA)
Gavin Brindley - University of Michigan (NCAA)
Dmitri Simashev - Loko-76 Yaroslavl (MHL)
Koehn Ziemmer - Prince George Cougars (WHL)
Jayden Perron - Chicago Steel (USHL)
Charlie Stramel - Wisconsin University (NCAA)
Otto Stenberg - Frölunda HC (SHL)
Luca Pinelli - Ottawa 67’s
Quentin Musty - Sudbury Wolves (OHL)
Daniil But - Loko-76 Yaroslavl (MHL)
How the lottery works
While there are 16 teams (each of the non-playoff teams) capable of winning the draft lottery, only the bottom 11 teams are eligible to receive the first overall pick. Changes were made to the lottery system last season, limiting the number of franchises capable of winning the top pick, as a team can only jump a maximum of 10 spots (Ex: The team with the 12th best odds can only jump as high as the 2nd overall pick).
There are technically two lotteries, allowing the two winners to climb from their original draft placement. This now guarantees the team with the worst overall record picking no later than third overall come draft night. Unlike in 2020, when the New York Rangers won the Alexis Lafreniere sweepstakes, the lottery is now done behind closed doors (yes, you won’t see the ping-pong balls bouncing around live).
What are each team’s odds at the first pick?
While the Anaheim Ducks have the best odds, any team from the Ducks down to the Vancouver Canucks can be awarded the first overall pick. Here are each team's odds for picks 1-16 courtesy of Tankathon.
*If the Ottawa Senators receive picks 11,12 or 13, the pick will be transferred to the Arizona Coyotes.
Recent Draft Lottery Winners/Top Overall Picks
2022 - Montreal Canadiens/Juraj Slafkovsky
2021 - Buffalo Sabres/Owen Power
2020 - New York Rangers/Alexis Lafreniere
2019 - New Jersey Devils/Jack Hughes
2018 - Buffalo Sabres/Rasmus Dahlin
2017 - New Jersey Devils/Nico Hischier
2016 - Toronto Maple Leafs/Auston Matthews
2015 - Edmonton Oilers/Connor McDavid
2014 - Florida Panthers/Aaron Ekblad
2013 - Colorado Avalance/Nathan MacKinnon
Where and when to watch
The draft lottery can be viewed live tonight on ESPN in the U.S. and Sportnet in Canada, beginning at 8 pm EST.
The 2023 NHL Entry Draft will take place on June 28-29 at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, TN. Round one will be held on June 28, with rounds 2-7 the following day. Day one coverage is available on ESPN and ESPN+ in the United States and on Sportsnet in Canada, beginning at 7 pm EST.